1861 CONSULTING

2022 PRIMARY ELECTION PREVIEW

Below you will find a comprehensive preview of tomorrow’s primary election. Following the election, we will also send a recap and analysis. A special thank you to Heather Sprague Scanlon for her work putting this together.

KANSAS GOVERNOR

Incumbent Governor Laura Kelly, Lt. Governor David Toland: Governor Laura Kelly, a Topeka Democrat, was elected to the office in 2018 after serving in the Kansas State Senate from 2005 - 2019. Originally, current State Treasurer, Lynn Rogers, was her running mate, but was appointed to the position in 2021. Kelly’s running mate this cycle is sitting Lt. Governor and the state’s Secretary of Commerce, David Toland. In 2018, Kelly faced off against Kris Kobach - former Secretary of State, unsuccessful candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020, and currently in a three-way primary for Attorney General. Kelly won with 48% of the vote to Kobach’s 43% in the gubernatorial election; however, the 2022 election landscape in the race for Governor is vastly different from 2018. Governor Kelly does have a primary challenge in Richard Karnowski, but will be the likely Democratic candidate in November. Last week, Kelly reported raising $1.5M thus far in 2022.

Primary Challenger: Richard S. Karnowski, Running Mate Barry J. Franco

Republican Challenger Derek Schmidt, Running Mate Katie Sawyer: Current Attorney General, Derek Schmidt is the likely Republican nominee for governor, though he does face a primary against a lesser-known candidate (Arlynn Briggs). Schmidt served in the Kansas Senate from 2001 - 2011, where he held the leadership position of Majority Leader, prior to his election to the Attorney General’s office. His tenure there began in 2011. Schmidt is a self-described conservative who has vowed to advocate for personal responsibility, individual freedoms, and the Constitution. Katie Sawyer, Schmidt’s running mate, has worked for Roger Marshall over the last several years, both in his capacity as a Congressman and as U.S. Senator for Kansas. Last week, Schmidt reported raising $707,000 thus far in 2022.

Primary Challenger: Arlyn Briggs, Running Mate Lance Berland

Independent Challenger Dennis Pyle, Running Mate Kathleen Garrison: A sitting Senator from Hiawatha, Dennis Pyle is a former Republican currently gathering signatures to appear on the ballot. After one term in the Kansas House of Representatives, Pyle has served as a state Senator since 2005. Earlier this month, Pyle unaffiliated from the Republican party before announcing his intent to run for Governor. As an independent, to get on the ballot Pyle must collect 5,000 petition signatures from Kansans, a list which will be vetted for legitimacy. Earlier today, Sen. Pyle submitted nearly 9000 signatures. The Secretary of State’s office will now begin the verification process, then the State Canvass Board must meet by September 1 and make a ruling as to the legitimacy of the voter signatures. Last week, Pyle reported raising $36,000 thus far in 2022.

KANSAS ATTORNEY GENERAL

Republican Primary

Kris Kobach - Kris Kobach, former Secretary of State, unsuccessful candidate for Governor in 2018, and unsuccessful candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020, is taking another run at public office. Considered by many to be a flawed candidate, Kobach still has the lead in every poll released in the race. He has high name recognition given his previously held office, as well as his extreme policies and views on voter fraud and immigration, and his association with former President Donald Trump. Kobach has stated that if elected, a priority would be to resume the prosecution of voter fraud (although over his tenure as Secretary of State, he successfully prosecuted just thirteen cases). Kobach has also vowed he would fight to lower the drinking age to 18. In an interview, Kobach cited his main concern: "The No. 1 issue is stopping President Biden in court when he violates the Constitution or statutes." Numerous polls show Kobach consistently leading the primary field, and the only candidate in double digits (around 40%). Last week, Kobach reported raising $218,337 thus far in 2022.

Kellie Warren - Sitting state Senator Kellie Warren, who also served one term as a Kansas House Representative, was elected to the Senate in 2020. She serves as the Chairwoman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Warren has garnered several major endorsements in the race, including the Kansas Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity – both powerful and well-funded organizations in Kansas politics. These endorsements are significant as neither organization usually gets involved in primaries, but it is with the intent to prevent Kobach from winning the nomination (and to avoid a possible repeat of the 2018 gubernatorial election, which Democrat Laura Kelly won largely based on Kobach as her opponent). Warren has also been endorsed by several current and former members of the Kansas legislature, including Senate President Ty Masterson. Warren is running on three major principles: Protecting from government overreach, defending business, and defending conservative values. Last week, Warren reported raising $272,870 thus far in 2022.

Tony Mattivi - Tony Mattivi is a former federal prosecutor, former Assistant United States Attorney and former Antiterrorism and National Security Coordinator for the District of Kansas. His prestigious career has garnered Mattivi several endorsements, including a number of state County Attorneys. Currently lagging in polls, Mattivi has thus far only polled in single digits, generally around 7%. Last week, he made news with a proposal to permit teachers – who have undergone firearm training – to carry guns inside classrooms as part of a defense plan to deter school shootings. Mattivi is running on four main issues: fighting government overreach, backing police, protecting the Constitution, and enforcing the law. Last week, Mattivi reported raising $165,255 thus far in 2022.

There is no Democratic primary in the race for Attorney General.

Chris Mann - The only Democrat in the race for Attorney General, Chris Mann will face the winner of the three-way Republican primary in the November general election. Mann is a former police officer whose tenure ended after an injury in which he was hit by a drunk driver, which led to active involvement with the Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) organization. Mann served as a prosecutor in the Wyandotte County District Attorney’s office before moving to prosecutor for the Kansas Securities Commission. He now has his own law practice. His primary focus if elected as Attorney General is to promote public safety while keeping politics out of the office. Mann has been endorsed by the Democratic Generals Attorney Association. A poll conducted and released by Kobach’s campaign showed Kobach winning a head-to-head race in the general election 44% - 41%, with 15% of those polled undecided.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Republican Primary

Incumbent Scott Schwab - Scott Schwab was elected as Secretary of State in 2018 after serving in the Kansas House of Representatives from 2009 - 2019. He was selected by the Republican caucus as Speaker Pro Tem over the duration of his last two years in the House. Coming into the Secretary of State’s office after a tumultuous eight years after Kris Kobach, Schwab focused his campaign and first term on sorting through the slew of new election laws imposed before and after his election and implementing them statewide. The 2020 election in Kansas was secure, despite other claims, and Schwab has introduced multiple policies and laws to tighten election security while preserving the right to vote. Schwab has faced scrutiny from some members of his own party around the stolen elections theory, but has held fast in defending election integrity in the state. It is likely that Schwab will come out of the primary and face the Democrat in the general election. Last week, Schwab reported raising $93,500 thus far in 2022.

Mike Brown - Republican primary challenger to sitting Secretary Schwab, Mike Brown is a former Johnson County Commissioner running a campaign focused primarily on theories that voter fraud, stolen elections, and a lack of election security pose an immediate threat to the state and nation (it should be noted that Kansas has not seen any evidence of voter fraud). His proposals include banning ballot boxes and utilizing the prosecutorial authorities the office acquired under the tenure of Kris Kobach. As well as holding a position as a County Commissioner from 2017 - 2021 (losing his bid in the 2022 election after controversial comments inciting violence), Brown has served on the JoCo Parks & Rec Commission and the Kansas State Workforce Development Board. He currently sits on the KCHBA Boards of Directors. Last week, Brown reported raising $95,300 thus far in 2022.

There is no Democratic primary in the race for Secretary of State.

Jeana Repass - The sole Democratic candidate in the race for Secretary of State, Repass announced her candidacy with criticism of legislation passed in recent years by the legislature, citing the laws as extreme, restrictive, and suppressive. She says these laws make it harder for people to vote, not easier, and disproportionately impact minority communities. Repass has made a career in the media broadcasting industry while also doing advocacy work; she headed up a USDA-funded food program providing school lunch for students during the summer, a pregnancy prevention program specifically concerning teenage mothers, and a violence prevention program in the Kansas City area. Repass is campaigning on removing barriers to expand access to voting and registration.

STATE TREASURER

Republican Primary

Caryn Tyson - Caryn Tyson, a sitting state Senator and chairwoman of the Senate Tax Committee, is one of two Republicans vying for the nomination in the primary for Treasurer. She served in the House of Representatives for one term before her election to the Senate in 2013. Tyson has played a major role in tax reforms and legislation over the last several years in Kansas. In 2018, Tyson ran for a congressional seat in a crowded seven-way primary, coming in second to Steve Watkins, who went on to win the seat. Tyson owns a ranch and previously worked as a software engineer. A self-proclaimed conservative, she is focusing her campaign around her financial knowledge and creating a state that is pro-family and pro-business. Should Tyson lose the primary race, she will still hold her position in the Senate until the 2024 election (Senators serve four-year terms). Last week, Tyson reported raising $77,300 thus far in 2022

Steven Johnson - The second Republican in the race for Treasurer, current state Representative Steven Johnson has served in the Kansas House since 2011. Also previously holding the position of Chairman on the House Tax Committee, Johnson was instrumental in tax reform, and awarded for his bipartisan work on repealing the tax “experiment” set in place during Sam Brownback’s gubernatorial tenure. This allowed the Kansas state budget a major fiscal improvement. Previously a member of the financial firm, Ameriprise, where he oversaw the creation of an investment portfolio and projection software program, Johnson hopes to bring his financial experience to the office of state Treasurer. Last week, Johnson reported raising $87,500 thus far in 2022.

There is no Democratic primary in the race for State Treasurer.

Incumbent Lynn Rogers - Originally elected as Governor Kelly’s running mate, Rogers served as the Lt. Governor until 2021. He was appointed state Treasurer by the governor and Secretary of Commerce, David Toland, assumed the role of Lt. Governor. Rogers, a Democrat, is a former state Senator who resigned mid-term after the 2018 election. He was appointed Treasurer when the previous Treasurer, Jake LaTurner, won a congressional seat and resigned the post. As a Senator, Rogers held the ranking Democrat position within the Senate Committee on Financial Institutions and Insurance. He has in the past served as the president of the Wichita school board, and worked for 30 years in the agricultural banking industry. In November, Rogers will vie for the office against the winner of a two-way Republican primary.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

There is no primary race for Insurance Commissioner.

Incumbent Vicki Schmidt - Currently finishing up her first term as Insurance Commissioner, Vicki Schmidt is seeking re-election in November. Schmidt was previously a member of the Kansas state Senate, serving from 2005 - 2019, when she was elected to the statewide office. She has had a quiet tenure thus far as Insurance Commissioner, well-liked across the aisle, and is likely to retain the position in the general election. She beat out a primary challenger in 2018 with 52% of the vote before Kansas voters selected her as Commissioner. Schmidt works as a pharmacist, bringing her experience working with health insurance to the post.

Kiel Corkran - Though running as a Democrat in the race for Insurance Commissioner, Kiel Corkran is a member of the Green Party. He has a background in mathematics, as a paraeducator, and as a technician for the IRS. A self-proclaimed civil and political activist, this is Corkran’s first run for office at any level.

LEGISLATIVE RACES

All 125 seats in the Kansas House of Representatives are up for election in 2022.

Kansas House

The landscape of the Kansas House of Representatives after the November election will look vastly different than the current one. This is due to a number of factors: all 125 seats are up for re-election, redistricting has altered legislative district lines, a number of members from both parties are retiring, and we’ll see new leadership elections and committee assignments prior to the 2023 session.

Currently in both legislative chambers, Republicans hold a supermajority. In the House, the breakdown of the 125 members is 86 Republicans to 39 Democrats.

Primary Races to Watch

House District 5 Republican Primary - Incumbent Mark Samsel, Challenger Carrie Barth

Incumbent Mark Samsel faced controversy during his second term as a Representative when he suffered a manic episode and was arrested for kicking a student in the groin while substitute teaching. He has undergone a court-ordered evaluation and has since sought therapy while surrendering his teaching license. Samsel has been known to buck leadership as a fairly moderate Republican, and Carrie Barth, who is a staunch conservative, will seek to unseat him.

House District 33 Democratic Primary - Open seat with a three way primary between Bill Hutton, Taylor Dean, and Mathew Reinhold

After the retirement of long-time Representative Tom Burroughs, a three-way primary has arisen in this Wyandotte County district. Expected to lead the pack is Bill Hutton, an attorney, and former officer of the Kansas Democratic Party.

House District 37 Democratic Primary - Incumbent Aaron Coleman, Challengers Faith Rivera and Melissa Oropeza

Coleman was controversial before he was elected – he threatened to shoot up a school, physically abused his ex-girlfriend, and harassed a number of young women. Even so, he managed to unseat former Representative Stan Frownfelter in the 2020 primary and go on to win the seat. The controversy continued after his election, as he was arrested twice within one month (once for assault and once for a suspected DUI) and was also banned from the Kansas Department of Labor for attempted trespassing and berating of officials. Rivera, an activist, and Oropeza, a nurse practitioner, both hope to unseat Coleman and take the seat.

House District 64 Republican Primary - Incumbent Suzi Carlson, Challengers Brad Starnes and Lewis Bloom

Suzi Carlson, serving her second-term in the House, faced legal trouble earlier this year when she was arrested for a DUI. Two primary challengers seek to overtake Carlson for the nomination. Despite the DUI charges, Carlson has been able to procure endorsements from Kansans for Life, the Kansas Livestock Association, and the National Rifle Association.

House District 70 Republican Primary - Incumbent John Barker, Challenger Scott Hill

John Barker, a veteran Representative and the Chairman of the House Federal and State Affairs Committee, is facing a tough primary challenge against Scott Hill. Hill formerly served on the State Board of Education and is running to Barker’s right in a dogfight of a race. Barker has the support of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce and outraised Hill by about $2,000. A PAC has been formed specifically to raise money against Barker. This will be an intense and likely very close race to the finish.

House District 79 Republican Primary- Incumbent Cheryl Helmer, Challenger Webster Roth

Incumbent Cheryl Helmer, well-known for her off-kilter comments – such as falsely claiming a Topeka hotel was housing hundreds of illegal immigrants, has been a target for both Republicans and Democrats. Helmer has attacked Senate Majority Leader Larry Alley for supposedly recruiting an opponent against her. The opponent, Webster Roth, has the support of the Kansas Chamber of Commerce.

House District 118 Republican Primary - Incumbents Jim Minnix and Tatum Lee

Both incumbent Representatives, the redistricting process placed first-termers Jim Minnix and Tatum Lee into the same legislative district. Lee quickly gained a reputation for controversy in the House, publicly fighting with leadership and conservative organizations. This has gained her a loyal following in some circles, but has caused the Kansas Chamber of Commerce and the Kansas Livestock Association – both heavy hitters in the political arena – to support Minnix and campaign against Lee. Minnix also is endorsed by the Kansas Farm Bureau.

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS ON THE BALLOT

There is one constitutional amendment on the primary ballot.

HCR 5003 - “Value them Both” Amendment: In 2019, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled that the right to an abortion was affirmed under the Kansas Constitution. This amendment, if passed, would serve to void the ruling and affirm there is no Kansas constitutional right to abortion or to require the government funding of abortion. It would provide for the legislature to pass laws to regulate abortion, including, but not limited to, in circumstances of pregnancy resulting from rape or incest, or when necessary to save the life of the mother. Following the overturning of Roe v Wade in June by the United States Supreme Court, Kansas will be the first state to vote on a measure concerning abortion.

The actual text of the amendment on the ballot states: “Because Kansans value both women and children, the constitution of the state of Kansas does not require government funding of abortion and does not create or secure a right to abortion. To the extent permitted by the constitution of the United States, the people, through their elected state representatives and state senators, may pass laws regarding abortion, including, but not limited to, laws that account for circumstances of pregnancy resulting from rape or incest, or circumstances of necessity to save the life of the mother.” Abortion is a hot button issue not only in Kansas, but across the nation, and millions of dollars have been spent on both sides of the issue, in favor and against the amendment. This is the only ballot initiative that will appear on the primary election ballot.